Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

Broadway‘s history books might remember the 2024-2025 season as the year Hollywood stars – George Clooney, Denzel Washington, Jake Gyllenhaal, Kieran Culkin, Sarah Snook – sent box office revenue (and ticket prices) soaring to record heights. Or maybe the year of Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger (and Patti LuPone, but not for The Roommate). But I’ll remember this Broadway season as being just so very funny. Oh, Mary!, Eureka Day, Death Becomes Her, even the tender humor of Maybe Happy Ending, all supplied audiences with something in very short supply outside the theater this year: Laughter. That’s the best legacy of the 2024-2025 Broadway season.

With that in mind, and much gratitude, here are my predictions for this Sunday’s 78th Annual Tony Awards.

BEST PLAY
Will win: Oh, Mary!
Should win: Oh, Mary!

Before the big, superstar-driven megahits Good Night, And Good Luck, Othello and Glengarry Glen Ross arrived this spring to grab all the oxygen on Broadway, the talk of the industry was a queer, campy and out-and-out hilarious little Off Broadway transfer called Oh, Mary! Cole Escola’s tour-de-force comedy – the playwright plays a despicable, resentful and somehow thoroughly lovable Mary Todd Lincoln who wants nothing more than to be a cabaret star despite the objections of her husband Abe (who fears his own secret love of cabaret will reveal a bit too much of his other secret). Mary is the favorite to win, and Mary always gets her way.

Wouldn’t Mind Too Much… if either John Proctor Is The Villain or Purpose pulls a surprise win. Or English or The Hills of California, for that matter. It was a good season for plays.

BEST MUSICAL
Will win: Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Maybe Happy Ending

There’s not an undeserving nominee in this category. Death Becomes Her is a wonderful, big, splashy musical that hits all the right notes for those of us that love wonderful, big, splashy musicals, Buena Vista Social Club, with a score entirely in Spanish, is gorgeous in every way and Operation Mincemeat was the second best musical about a corpse this year. But for me, the contest is between two of the most offbeat musicals to come along in ages: the hard rocking Dead Outlaw and Maybe Happy Ending. I’ll give the latter a slight edge mostly because of its impossibly poignant final scenes. Why impossibly? Because it’s a love story about robots, and it works on every level.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Will win: Eureka Day
Should win: Eureka Day

Both Romeo + Juliet and Our Town were fine enough, but we’ve all seen better revivals of those plays. The only real competition for Jonathan Spector’s remarkably prescient and deeply funny vax comedy Eureka Day was David Henry Hwang’s Yellow Face (and for what it’s worth, I’m not entirely convinced that the recent PBS presentation of the latter did the stage play any favors). And if it wasn’t for Oh, Mary!, Eureka Day could claim the funniest scene of the Broadway season with that virtual school board meeting.

Wouldn’t Mind At All…if Yellow Face takes the prize.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Will win: Sunset Blvd.
Should win: Sunset Blvd.

Given that Gypsy director George C. Wolfe was snubbed in his category, I suspect the chances for that great musical/not great revival are slim for a Revival win. Slim, but not nonexistent. Floyd Collins, the 1994 Off Broadway musical that finally made its Broadway bow and seemed somewhat more revered in memory than loved in the present, is a long shot, as is the charming but underwhelming Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Jamie Lloyd’s moody, expressionist take on Norma & Co. should take the Tony.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY
Will win: Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Should win: Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!

In any other year, I’d be rooting for underdog Louis McCartney, who carried the entire Upside Down on his slim shoulders throughout Stranger Things: The First Shadow. Jon Michael Hill and Harry Lennix of Purpose and Daniel Dae Kim of Yellow Face each have decent shots, while there isn’t quite enough good luck in New York City to hand the Tony to George Clooney. Simply put, Cole Escola gave the best performance on Broadway this season.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY
Will win: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Should win: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

The Succession star made her Broadway debut in the ambitious The Picture of Dorian Gray, playing some two dozen characters, credibly and with precision, from the Oscar Wilde novel. This one’s hers to lose. Laura Donnelly (The Hills of California) could prove a spoiler, as could LaTanya Richardson Jackson (Purpose). Sadie Sink gave a wonderful performance in John Proctor Is The Villain, and Broadway would be lucky to see her return. As for the endearing Mia Farrow, she just picked the wrong season for a Broadway comeback.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Will win: Jonathan Groff, Just In Time
Should win: Jonathan Groff, Just In Time

Darren Criss has every right to grab that Tony for his captivating, one-of-a-kind performance as a lovesick Helper-bot in the sleeper hit Maybe Happy Ending, and speaking of one-of-a-kind, Andrew Durand as the alive-then-dead title character of Dead Outlaw pulls off one of the more astonishing theatrical feats in memory. But Groff’s take-no-prisoners performance as nightclub superstar Bobby Darin is pure Broadway, and thoroughly – and more than justifiably – winning.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Will win: Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Should win: Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her

Yes, its a battle between Audra and Nicole Scherzinger, and yes the whole Patti LuPone contretemps served to single out the Gypsy star as foregone conclusion, but this category is jammed with worthy nominees who gave extraordinary performances this year. The wonderfully talented Jasmine Amy Rogers made Boop! The Musical worth sitting through – no small feat – and both Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty brought a gloriously over-the-top style to the usually dreadful movie-turned-musical genre. I’d be happy if this contest was between the Death Becomes Her stars but it’s not, so I’ll expect Audra to win, and not be surprised if Nicole does. But I’m rooting for Jennifer.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
Will win: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!
Should win: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

Francis Jue is a Broadway veteran who deserves every bit of the industry love he’s been receiving since his heartbreaking and very funny performance as the misguidedly patriotic father in Yellow Face. Glenn Davis as the corrupt, naive and ever hopeful Solomon “Junior” Jasper is the key pin that holds the endlessly intriguing family dynamic of Purpose together. Bob Odenkirk was the star among stars of Glengarry Glen Ross, and Gabriel Ebert, as the nice guy/evil bastard high school teacher of John Proctor Is the Villain would get my vote any year but this one. This season, it’s Ricamora, whose desperate Abe Lincoln is the secret sauce of Oh, Mary!, a gay straight-man outsized and outmatched by a force of nature played by the once-in-a-generation light that is Cole Escola. The year belongs to them both.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
Will win: Kara Young, Purpose
Should win: Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day

With her history-making fourth consecutive Tony nomination, Kara Young of Purpose is once again the favorite this year, and who could argue? She has been, without question, a force on Broadway throughout the post-pandemic era, a comic actor who can, without missing a beat, break your heart. I’m happy for what seems to be her likely win. And both Tala Ashe and Marjan Neshat made English the type of production Broadway-goers cherish, performances that will live in memory. Fina Strazza is one of the many gems of John Proctor Is the Villain, and delivers what might be the single best, most subtle, most thought-provoking final minute of any tale since The Graduate. But it was Jessica Hecht, so good in 2023’s underrated Summer, 1976, who gave the trickiest, most nuanced performance in this category. As the ultra liberal, ultra anti-vax school board member of Eureka Day, Hecht took us down a path few saw coming. All due respect to the other nominees in this overflowing with riches category, but this is Hecht’s time.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Will win: Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat
Should win: Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat

Brooks Ashmanskas, Jeb Brown, Taylor Trensch and the ever reliable Danny Burstein had fine seasons and gave terrific performances in work that, at least in the cases of Ashmanskas (Smash) and Burstein (Gypsy) didn’t bring out their best. The Tony belongs to Malone, whose performance of the song “Dear Bill” in Operation Mincemeat is pretty much the epitome of a show stopper. Full of depth and heart, Malone’s “Dear Bill” – sung as a letter to a beloved husband lost to war – is one of the season’s most treasurable moments.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Will win: Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Should win: Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw

Belcon was the stand-out in the impeccable ensemble of Buena Vista Social Club, and is more than worthy of this award. But for me, Julia Knitel of Dead Outlaw is the secret weapon of that splendidly weird and affecting musical. She plays various characters, from the one true love of the Dead Outlaw himself, to a lonely young girl who decades later befriends his corpse. Somehow she makes it all work, and she sounds heavenly every note of the way.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Will win: Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!
Should win: Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!

What else is there to say about Oh, Mary! except that even Cole Escola needs a director who grasps every lightning-quick joke, every (blessedly rare) moment of genuine poignance, and puts it all together with the skill of a clockmaker and brashness of a true artist. Danya Taymor worked miracles with the wonderful John Proctor Is The Villain, but this is the year of Oh, Mary!.

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Will win: Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending

When the intentionally cramped world of a robot retirement home opens up to embrace a universe of awe and even love, Maybe Happy Ending moves from a quirky little sci-fi tale to something entirely different, a tragic love story – yes- for the ages. That’s in large part Michael Arden’s doing, and it is most definitely award-worthy. Not as in-your-face impressive as Jamie Lloyd’s gorgeous Sunset Blvd. or as wackily gut-punchy as Christopher Gattelli’s Death Becomes Her, but just, in a word, astounding.

And some quick takes:

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will win: Miriam Buether and 59, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Should win: Miriam Buether and 59, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Will win: Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will win: Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!
Should win: Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!

Lots of fine, elaborate costume work on display this season, from the quick-change finery of The Picture of Dorian Gray to the spot-on tidy drudgery of ’70s-era Blackpool in The Hills of California. But it’s the hilariously billowy, life-of-its-own black hoop skirt of Oh, Mary! that’ll end up in a museum someday.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will win: Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club
Should win: Paul Tazewell, Death Becomes Her

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will win: Jon Clark, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Should win: Jon Clark, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Wouldn’t Mind Terribly If…Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski take the Tony for the way they use lighting as a plot- and character-defining guide in John Proctor Is the Villain.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Will win: Jack Knowles, Sunset Blvd.
Should win: Ben Stanton, Maybe Happy Ending

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Will win: Paul Arditti, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Should win: Paul Arditti, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Will win: Peter Hylenski, Just In Time
Should win: Peter Hylenski, Just In Time

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Will win: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club
Should win: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Will win: Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time
Should win: Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Will win: Will Aronson and Hue Park, Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Will Aronson and Hue Park, Maybe Happy Ending

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE WRITTEN FOR THE THEATRE
Will win: David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna, Dead Outlaw
Should win: David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna, Dead Outlaw

The Tony Awards: Act One, a live pre-show with exclusive content is available to viewers for free on Pluto TV beginning Sunday, June 8 at 6:40-8:00 PM, ET/3:40-5:00 PM, PT. Immediately following, The 78th Annual Tony Awards will broadcast live to both coasts from 8:00-11:00 PM ET/5:00-8:00 PM PT on CBS and streaming on Paramount+ in the U.S.