For much of the season, the focus around the possibility of a Moto2 veteran finally getting a chance to race in MotoGP in 2025 has been on American rider Joe Roberts’ chances at Trackhouse.
But according to new reports, if one Moto2 veteran is going to get a chance in the top flight next season, it will be Thai rider Somkiat Chantra.
Unfortunately for Roberts, this makes perfect sense given the current landscape of the top flight.
Roberts’ Long-Term Plan Against Trackhouse for the US
Since the inception of the Trackhouse Aprilia project last November at the season finale in Valencia, team owner Justin Marks has been adamant about one thing: the desire is to have American talent on the team – but that will not come at the expense of results in the short term.
In short, no one will be given a seat there based on their passport alone.
When Marks first made those comments, it didn’t look like there would be any American talent worthy of a place in MotoGP anytime soon, so all the initial talk from the team was about investing in grassroots racing to produce the next generation of stars rather than promoting someone to failure.
“The holy grail for us is for an American rider to win a MotoGP race on our bikes, but we’re a long way from that,” Marks told The Race earlier this year. “We’re a long way from that in the sport now, and we’re not going to force them to do that.
“One of the things we’ll do at Trackhouse is understand the current state of the US talent pool and what the development ladder looks like in the US.
“Do we need to work with MotoAmerica and understand the current situation? How do kids start, where do they start? Where is the strong series that is being offered to kids?
“We look forward to the possibility of Trackhouse making investments in the US to enhance the development pipeline and provide opportunities for more children.”
But the picture has changed dramatically since then, as Roberts’ impressive performances in this year’s Moto2 season have been something of an unexpected feat for a rider who has only won once since joining the series in mid-2017.
He still sits third in the championship despite missing a round through injury, and has four podium finishes in 10 races, the most consistent performance we’ve ever seen from the Californian.
This is best illustrated by the fact that the rest of the top five, both above and below Roberts in the standings, are made up of Boscoscuro riders, while Roberts leads the way for the Kalex team, which previously dominated Moto2.
However, in the context of his wider Moto2 career, which has now spanned 120 races, his three consecutive podium finishes earlier this year is just a minor (albeit positive) stumble – and with other riders in the past having made similar missteps that they couldn’t turn into long-term success, it seems there are cold feet on the MotoGP paddock when it comes to Roberts.
Trackhouse management has always shown due respect when discussing Roberts, but never suggested that a Moto2 boom in 2024 would make any difference to the long-term US rider development strategy – no matter how loud the external hype of a 2025 MotoGP deal.
Ogura deviates from Honda’s plan
That’s why Trackhouse looks set to bet on Moto2 rival Ai Ogura to replace Miguel Oliveira instead, promoting the former Honda protégé to the Aprilia team as he competes for a second Moto2 title in three years.
Until now, it always seemed that if Ogura made his way to the premier class, it would be to replace Taka Nakagami at the LCR Honda team in the Idemitsu-backed seat that was generally reserved for Honda’s top Japanese drivers.
In fact, Ogura turned down that seat in 2023 due to the difficulties Honda faced then (and continues to face now). And with him continuing to shine in Moto2, it’s no surprise that he’s also attracted interest from Honda’s MotoGP rivals – or that a non-Honda MotoGP seat might be more appealing to him.
Shantra in competition
So, if there is a vacancy on the LCR roster by 2025, the door could be open for another Southeast Asian contender.
Chantra himself is no stranger to short bursts of form that don’t last. At 25, Chantra is two years younger than Roberts and has never raced in Moto2. completely As long as (joined the network in 2019).
But he represents a huge market, with a huge fan base in his native Thailand (where he gets his own podium at Buriram, just as Marc Marquez and Valentino Rossi do on the track), and from a country where his LCR backer Idemitsu has a decent share of the fuel and lubricants market.
There are commercial reasons besides his performance on the track that could lead to him getting an unexpected promotion.
Chantra’s promotion to MotoGP might seem similar to Malaysian rider Hafizh Syahrin’s first-class seat at Tech3 in 2018 despite a fairly average Moto2 record. But while Chantra hasn’t been consistently successful, his two wins and six podiums at Moto2 are more impressive than Syahrin’s.
Ultimately, there is no compelling performance case for Chantra to win the nod over Nakagami (who himself hinted earlier this year that he might not want to continue riding the struggling Honda bike, although he has since changed his stance).
Roberts vs Chantra in Moto2
Starts: Roberts – 121 / Chantra – 97
Win: Roberts – 2 / Chantra – 2
Platforms: Roberts – 8 / Chantra – 6
Points per start: Roberts – 4.26 / Chantra – 4.41
But with one seat reserved at Honda for a rider backed by Idemitsu and Nakagami (a rider with little Moto2 experience) now seven years into a MotoGP career that has not produced a single podium finish, Idemitsu and Honda may think it’s time for a change anyway.
Chantra is now in pole position to get a chance in MotoGP if they can make it.
