Max Verstappen and Red Bull entered the Formula 1 summer break with their worst form since 2020, meaning there is a new contender to win the championship.
A season that began with Red Bull dominance under Verstappen has evolved into at least one surprise title battle – or two, if you share Verstappen’s fears that he might be overtaken in the drivers’ championship by Lando Norris as well.
McLaren failed to win the final race before the August break in Belgium, but took advantage of Verstappen’s grid penalty and Sergio Perez’s drop to close the constructors’ points gap.
With Red Bull now four races without a win – Verstappen’s longest winless streak since before he became world champion – the momentum is in the chaser’s favour. Although Red Bull are technically dominant, McLaren will be disappointed if they fail to capitalise on this opportunity to steal the constructors’ title.
Manufacturers Championship
1 Red Bull 408 points
2 McLaren-42
3 Ferrari -63
4 Mercedes-142
Verstappen believes McLaren have been “definitely the best” over the past five or six races. His words were a clear warning ahead of the summer break, even if it was more restrained at Spa than the more irritating wake-up call he gave Red Bull in Hungary.
The Red Bull drivers did not feel like their team was in control. They spoke like a team on the defensive and knew McLaren was superior.
Verstappen said Red Bull had to analyse everything “from the first race until now” and needed to try to “respond” after the summer break, “see if we can improve the situation” and “turn it around”. Perez said the summer break came at a good time for Red Bull because they had been “a bit lost” recently.
“If you look at the first part of the year now, we’re more than halfway through, we’ve won seven grands prix, we’ve won three sprint races and we’re leading both championships,” said team principal Christian Horner, who opted not to replace Perez after the summer break.
“But over the past few weeks, it has become clear that construction companies [points advantage] “It’s kind of gone down, and that’s what our focus is on.”
McLaren have been outscoring Red Bull in the last eight races. The gap is now the smallest since the first round in Bahrain, and if McLaren continue to outperform Red Bull at the current rate, they will win the championship.
With that in mind, there is a very strong case to be made that McLaren are indeed the favourites – despite coming from behind.
Verstappen said Red Bull are in a race pace deficit, meaning every race is about “limiting the damage and trying to get as close as possible.” So unless Red Bull address the limitations of their car or Perez starts scoring big points again (ideally both), they will be looking back with concern after the break.
That means McLaren have a big chance, if nothing else. But do the two tracks leave Verstappen vulnerable in the drivers’ championship too?
That would be a stretch. One of the reasons Red Bull are so exposed in the constructors’ championship is that with Perez out of the picture, the Norris-Oscar Piastri combination is too strong for Verstappen to beat on his own.
But on the drivers’ side, Verstappen is still the most consistent of the leaders, and can keep his rivals under control.
Norris is Verstappen’s closest competitor, and although Verstappen believes Norris can beat him to the title this year, the task will be very difficult.
Norris is still far behind his closest rivals and managed to lose some points in Belgium despite starting seven places ahead of his Red Bull rival. It was a very tough weekend and Norris was unable to beat a driver like Verstappen with these performances.
Even if he succeeds in eliminating the errors, getting 78 points in the remaining ten races is a huge challenge.
There are factors in Norris’ favour. This is the longest season in Formula 1 history, so it’s easier for someone to build a big lead and then lose it. There are also three more sprint races and an extra point for the fastest lap at each grand prix.
But if Norris comes back to win this world championship, it will be one of the biggest transformations in history.
On a relative basis – adjusting for past seasons and taking into account the fact that since 2010, a win has been worth 25 points rather than the 10, 9 or even 8 points in previous years – this would be the second-largest points deficit ever overcome, with Norris actually trailing Verstappen by 84 points at one point.
But the biggest turnaround came in extraordinary circumstances, when James Hunt overturned a 35-point lead – or about 97 points in today’s money – to win the 1976 title. But a horrific crash at the German Grand Prix kept him out for two races, and he was not fully recovered when he returned, withdrawing from the decisive race at Fuji in heavy rain.
We have to look to Kimi Raikkonen’s miracle of 2007 to pull off a massive comeback in a straight fight. He was 26 points behind Lewis Hamilton at worst – 65 points based on the current system – and had to overturn an improbable 17-point deficit with 20 points available in the final two races.
The odds are clearly against Norris, especially against a strong competitor like Verstappen who reaps the rewards of a very strong start and has generally performed well since.
Unlike Verstappen, Norris is not the frontrunner because McLaren has two equally strong drivers to back. Some argue that this needs to change, but McLaren is strongly against it – at least for now.
Although Norris may regret sharing points with Piastri if he narrowly escapes a return to title contention, having two drivers in contention is precisely why McLaren are now neck-and-neck in the championship, increasing their chances of winning the title.
