Why Norris’s toughest F1 rival isn’t Verstappen –

By all accounts, Norris was McLaren’s strongest driver in 2024. In the dry qualifying sessions where a meaningful comparison could be made, Norris was 9-3 with an average advantage of around 0.11 seconds.

In races where both have finished, Norris leads 9-5 and out-qualifies Piastri on the road with 71.4% of laps completed. He also leads Piastri in points, 199 to 167, while using the more subjective measure of The Race’s driver rankings, Norris ranks higher than Piastri 8-6.

There are two other factors to consider. Firstly, Piastri is still in his second season in Formula 1, and therefore at an early stage in his development as a Formula 1 driver. With testing opportunities severely limited, there is a huge advantage for Norris being in his sixth season.

But the advantage of experience will gradually fade. It is possible to look at Piastri’s peak as a useful measure, and there have been times when his advantage over Norris has disappeared, for example because of a grid penalty for impeding Kevin Magnussen at Imola or the timing of the safety car in Miami that finished second.

Secondly, there is the question of whether there is a trend in Piastri’s favour. You could say there is a moderate trend, though it is not definitive. He beat Norris in Hungary, he outdid him at Spa, and at times was the fastest McLaren in the wet at Silverstone before the team’s decision not to use double tyres in the first round of pit stops cost him the chance of victory.

But you have to go back to the eighth race of the season in Monaco before that to find that Piastri was undoubtedly the strongest driver in the McLaren team. Yet when he wasn’t he was close to the top, and it was only in China and Spain that he really struggled.

While winning the constructors’ championship is a realistic goal, and the drivers’ championship is certainly out of reach in the final 10 races, the battle for supremacy at McLaren will be an interesting subplot. Hungary, where Norris appeared to be struggling with his conscience about obeying team orders after being promoted to the lead due to an irregular series of pit stops, suggests he knows what’s at stake.

But all that said, there’s no doubt that Norris is McLaren’s strongest driver so far this season.

Where does Piastri need to improve?

Piastri’s peak performances were impressive from the start of his Formula 1 career. In particular, he excelled in the fast corners early on and even in the early days it was often a single corner loss on a qualifying lap that made the difference.

However, there is still room for improvement in single-lap pace as his record against Norris demonstrates. At times, he has been outstanding, but as you would expect from a driver in his second year, there is still detail work to be done. For example, in Japan, he struggled to maximise tyre grip on qualifying.

This ties in with another obvious area of ​​improvement, tyre management. Piastri has taken a step forward this year and it would be an unfair stretch to say he is bad at it in any way. It is also important to note that Norris is very adept when it comes to tyre management, and will occasionally adjust his approach to do so, meaning that Piastri’s lack of experience means he is still at a difficult stage of the learning curve.

“It’s tough,” he said when asked by The Race about his improvement in this area. “I feel like even if you’re in your 10th season with these tyres, you’re still learning little things here and there because it’s tough.”

“It also depends on the track. Some tracks you rely more on the rear tyres, some tracks you rely more on the front tyres, sometimes you push them too hard; sometimes they get too hot. So it’s never the same thing that causes the problem week after week. That makes it difficult to make quick progress.

“It’s not a specific thing when it comes to fixing tires. Sometimes it seems like it’s a big deal, and sometimes it doesn’t make any difference. It’s just a matter of when it’s going to make a difference and when it’s not going to make a difference. And certainly a lot of people in the past have used black magic to try to fix these tires.”

This will no doubt continue to improve as Piastri’s database grows. And while he jokes about “black magic,” there’s no substitute for experience when it comes to mastering the sometimes fickle, always sensitive Pirelli tires.

Mostly, it’s now a matter of making a small percentage of improvement in all areas to reach or even surpass Norris’s level. You can never be sure where a driver will end up, but it’s pretty clear that Piastri is very fast.

Honing his skills on the front line will ensure he is at the highest level possible. It is fair to say that his ice-cold demeanor and robotic-like calm temperament are a valuable weapon for him.

Where is Norris at risk?

Temperament is clearly an area where Norris may have a fundamental flaw. We still need more data and it is important to remember that he is still early in his Formula 1 career. He is hard on himself, but that in itself is not necessarily a problem.

The main question is whether he has the ability to successfully translate that into improvements to find those final fractions that make the difference.

“It’s marginal stuff. [that] “It just requires minor adjustments here and there,” said team principal Andrea Stella after the Belgian Grand Prix.

“We are certainly working with Lando – as we are with Oscar – to try to explore all the opportunities where we can improve individually and also to work together better to be more prepared or to use our abilities and talents better. It doesn’t necessarily change our position, but it certainly gives us some elements to analyse how some of these missed opportunities have come about.

“For Lando, it seems statistically that some chances tend to happen in the early stages of the race, so we need to check whether these are the early stages of the race for a reason or if it is just random. Lando, with the support of the team, will have to think, ‘What can I do better to make sure we capitalise on the good work we are doing?’ He was in a good starting position. [at Spa]But then we lost the position at the beginning with the low grade and [problems] “The overtaking made our lives difficult.”

That makes the second half of the season particularly important for Norris. He is on the verge of proving himself as a driver fully capable of winning the world championship, but he has to show that he has the ruthless ability to take every opportunity he is given. He is close, but most drivers, no matter how great they are, go through a period where they have to smooth out the rough edges. Some do, while others don’t.

How will the battle go?

Norris is currently the strongest driver in the McLaren team. But Piastri is getting closer, and there have been weekends when he has been the strongest driver in the McLaren team – Saudi Arabia, Miami (where he suffered a specification defect), Monaco and most notably the Hungaroring. The question is whether he can repeat that consistently across a wide range of conditions and challenges on the track.

His skill set has been steadily expanding and he shows no signs of slowing down and will know how important it is to use the second half of this season to accelerate as quickly as possible through his learning curve. After all, there is every chance that a Drivers’ Championship could be within reach for McLaren next year. This year is not impossible, but it is so unlikely at the moment that it could be ruled out.

This will also raise the question of which driver will be preferred. The idea of ​​a team leader is real, but the idea that it is inevitable makes no sense. It will come down to performance and consistency, and at the moment it is possible to imagine that Norris or Piastri will be the favourite next season. Similarly, they may prove to be so evenly matched that the race can swing back and forth. That could create the biggest headache for the team.

The recent discussions about favourites are irrelevant when it comes to what will actually decide the outcome. If McLaren gets to a certain point, which is likely, the team will either have to accept that both are in contention, or choose which one is better.

But for all the heated debate among fans about who is their favourite driver, Stella has made it clear in words and deeds that he doesn’t care. He is focused on one thing: favouring McLaren as a team.

That is the key question as this battle unfolds. Drivers will be given free rein in the battle, provided they stick to the programme. But just as Norris had a crisis of conscience in Hungary – a crisis in which the right decision prevailed – there is always the possibility that one or the other driver will put their own goals first.

Whatever happens, the battle between the pair, which could end in either of them’s favour, is set to be a major story in Formula 1 over the next 18 months. And for that reason, this will be the first battle Norris has to win, because if he can’t win this one, he won’t be McLaren’s long-term spearhead in the wider battle against Verstappen and the rest.