First and foremost, the Yankees need to spend the next five weeks avoiding an epic collapse to make sure they are playing into October.
Goal 1A is keeping their big dogs healthy — because if they don’t have Aaron Judge, Juan Soto or even Gerrit Cole firing at full capacity, they probably won’t be going far.
But besides that? They need to use these five weeks to find out exactly what their playoff roster should look like.
Some years, the playoff roster is more obvious than others. In a best-case scenario, the only questions surround who gets the last bench spot — maybe a pinch-runner — or the final bullpen spot.
But right now, it seems as if the Yankees will have some heavier decisions.
Who is their first baseman? Whom can they trust in the bullpen, and does that include pitchers who are starters right now? And should left field be open for debate?
Complicating matters, of course, is that the Yankees have a number of players working their way back from injuries at the moment — including Jazz Chisholm Jr., Clarke Schmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Hamilton, Lou Trivino, Jon Berti and Cody Poteet. Ideally, they all will become options to help in October.
But as the 2022 Yankees showed, that is no guarantee. Harrison Bader returned on Sept. 20 after missing three months with plantar fasciitis and was great in October. DJ LeMahieu returned on Sept. 30 after missing three-plus weeks with a toe/foot injury and did not show enough to even make it onto the playoff roster. Matt Carpenter returned in the ALDS after missing two months with a broken left foot and was a shell of himself.
Every case is different. Because of that, September will go a long way in trying to determine which 26 players get onto the playoff roster — and it could vary from round to round, too. If the Yankees end up having to play in the wild-card series, they only would need to take three starting pitchers.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll project what the roster could look like if they make it to the ALDS and need four starters (if they play all three games in the wild-card series, none of those starters would be able to come back and pitch Game 1 of the ALDS unless it was on short rest):
Rotation (4): Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt
This group is still a bit unsettled beyond Cole (giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will find his groove after an up-and-down season that was delayed two and a half months by an elbow issue). Rodon, for his part, has been better after hitting a rough patch before the All-Star break.
Perhaps the biggest question here is how Gil will be holding up physically by October and whether he is best served staying in the rotation or moving to the bullpen (or not on the roster at all if his recent back strain becomes a bigger problem). Maybe the IL stint will double as a valuable breather for him. Because when he is healthy and sharp, he is certainly one of the Yankees’ best four starters.
As for Schmidt, if the Yankees had designs on bringing him back to be a reliever in the postseason, wouldn’t they be starting that transition now instead of having him go through a full buildup in his rehab?
He was off to a strong start before straining his lat in late May. But it remains to be seen whether he can get back to that form or if he ends up as a bullpen weapon in the playoffs. If that is the case, Nestor Cortes likely would slot in here, especially if his recent turnaround is for real.
Bullpen (9): Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle, Jake Cousins, Mark Leiter Jr., Tim Hill, Marcus Stroman, Scott Effross, Nestor Cortes
Lots of room for volatility here. Barring injury, Holmes, Weaver, Kahnle and Cousins should be close to locks. If Stroman and Cortes are not starting, do they make the bullpen to offer length? Both have some experience as relievers in their careers.
That would leave three spots up for grabs. If the Yankees can get Leiter back on track, he will take one, as his potential for missing bats (and getting lefties out) is important. Hill is a ground-ball specialist who mostly has been solid from the left side. Effross is somewhat of an unknown, having not pitched in the big leagues since 2022, though perhaps he will be up by Sept. 1 and have a month to prove he can get outs in the postseason.
But Hamilton, Trivino, Michael Tonkin and Tim Mayza also will be vying for spots.
Catchers (2): Austin Wells, Jose Trevino
As many questions as there are elsewhere, this group is all but locked in. The only question is whether Wells starts every game or if Trevino will get in the lineup against left-handed starters.
Infield (5): Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Rizzo, Oswaldo Cabrera
If Chisholm’s UCL injury is truly just a short-term thing (which he believes it is), he would join Volpe and Torres as sure things.
First base is much less certain. Rizzo is currently working his way back from an arm fracture, but a scan last week showed he still has some more healing to do before starting a rehab assignment. So it remains to be seen how much of runway he will get. Until then, the Yankees have been trying to get LeMahieu back on track, without much success, while Ben Rice has cooled off from his hot start, even if he generally still has been hitting the ball hard. Can they really bank on either of them in October?
A potential wild card here is Berti. He is still trying to get right after sustaining a calf strain in late May. With speed being an important part of his game, he needs his legs healthy to make an impact. If that happens, he may be more likely to replace an extra outfielder than would Cabrera, who has been strong over the past month-plus.
Outfield (5): Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Trent Grisham, Jasson Dominguez
Should left field be up for grabs?
Though he still regularly bats leadoff against right-handers, Verdugo’s slump has reached two months. He is batting just .180 with a paltry .501 OPS since June 15.
That downturn has had fans clamoring for Dominguez to be called up, though he had a rough season debut as the 27th man in Williamsport on Sunday (the Yankees did him no favors, asking him to come up to face the AL Cy Young favorite, Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal).
When rosters expand on Sept. 1, it would not be surprising to see Dominguez back with the Yankees (depending on when Chisholm and Berti are ready to come back from the IL).
But do they give him enough run in left field to prove he deserves a chance to start or do they instead just ride it out with Verdugo? Either way, there’s a decent chance both make the roster.
Grisham’s case is more questionable, but if the Yankees want some defensive insurance in center field, he would be the guy.
Designated hitter (1): Giancarlo Stanton
Assuming he stays healthy (which is no guarantee), there is little question that Stanton will continue as the Yankees’ regular DH.
Reflecting on Williamsport
A crushing loss and some bizarre comments from the Staten Island coach notwithstanding, the Yankees gave a lot of kids the memories of a lifetime on Sunday in Williamsport.
The Little League Classic is a win for MLB, having two teams every year visit the Little League World Series and hang with teams before playing their own game at Bowman Field (about a 15-minute drive) later that day.
But it feels as if there’s a way for it to be even better, if there were a way to have the teams actually spend a night in Williamsport instead of flying in and out on the same day (which may require a hotel being built nearby that is suitable for the players to stay in).
As it was, the Yankees landed in Williamsport around noon, got to the complex around 1 p.m. and then left around 3 p.m. to go get ready for their own game. That led to this comment from Judge — before the Staten Island coach criticized him for not spending time with his players.
“I wish we got to spend more time with the kids and hang out with them,” Judge said Sunday night after the 3-2, 10-inning loss to the Tigers. “We kind of got rushed around a little bit, but the moments we did get to spend with them and talk with them — really just answer questions and have some fun with them, ask them questions about how they’re doing and how they’re enjoying this experience — that for me was definitely the best part. Maybe next time we come back we’ll have some more time.”
One way to do that? Build in an off day on Saturday, allowing teams to arrive that morning and spend the day at the complex before getting Sunday for their own game. Of course, that would take there being a block of rooms available and nice enough for teams to stay in on Saturday night.
History in the making
Every time you finish shaking your head at the kind of season Judge is putting together, he does something else to add to the absurdity of it all.
Judge is batting .334 with a 1.191 OPS and 48 home runs after going deep again Thursday.
Only two players have ever hit 48 or more home runs with the same or better average and OPS than Judge has now (hat tip to Stathead): Babe Ruth (four times) and Jimmie Foxx.
