The Mets will try for their seventh straight win Wednesday as they continue their pursuit of the final National League wild-card berth.
Tanner Houck will take the mound looking to stop the bleeding for the Red Sox, who have failed to capitalize on the Royals‘ seven-game losing streak by dropping four straight of their own.
Let’s take a closer look at Wednesday’s matchup that has plenty of playoff implications.
Mets vs. Red Sox odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -110 | -1.5 (+155) | o8 (-105) |
| Mets | -110 | +1.5 (-185) | u8 (-115) |
Mets vs. Red Sox prediction
Houck was fantastic prior to the All-Star break with a 2.54 ERA over 117 innings. But he has been considerably less effective since that point.
Over his last eight starts, Houck has pitched to an ERA of 4.53 with an xFIP of 4.73. Batters hold a .284 xBA against him during that span, and his strikeout rate has dropped considerably to 15%. Batters zone-contact rate has also climbed to 91.2% over that time.
Making matters worse, Boston’s bullpen has also tailed off considerably of late. Over the last 30 days, Red Sox relievers are ranked 25th in ERA (4.99) with an xFIP of 4.33.
Houck will be opposed by Tylor Megill, who was excellent in his return Friday from a three-game minor-league demotion.
Megill pitched to a WHIP of 1.09 at Triple-A Syracuse, and was sharp in his return to the majors, allowing just one earned run and five hits, though it was against the White Sox.
His stuff continues to grade out better than league average (106 Stuff+), but staying healthy enough to find consistency has always been an issue. His has underperformed his 4.26 xERA and 4.14 xFIP with a true ERA of 4.82. He has the stuff to improve on those marks down the stretch.
The Mets’ lineup has achieved a wRC+ of 109 over the last 30 days, while the Red Sox have put up a wRC+ of just 84. The two sides are far closer in results versus right-handed pitching over that span, as the Mets wRC+ of 112 ranks only one point higher.
Red Sox vs. Mets pick
Is Houck’s far-superior overall numbers this season factoring too heavily into this game. That appears to be the case with oddsmakers setting this game as a pick’em.
But Houck’s form has tailed off for a fairly lengthy sample of play, and he is offering a comparable amount of question marks as Megill ahead of this matchup.
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New York’s bullpen has been better and has put up drastically better results in recent weeks than Boston’s ‘pen, which has been in shambles after a hot start.
The Mets look to have a better chance of making it seven straight than oddsmakers are giving them credit for, and at anything better than -115, I see value backing them to win this important matchup.
Pick: Mets moneyline (-108, FanDuel)
