Let’s not overthink it.
Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are dancing with history on just about sure playoff teams and so they should — and will — win the MVP awards.
Let’s complicate things.
Ohtani, who won two AL MVPs uniquely as a pitcher and a hitter, is trying to win uniquely in a different way in the NL by becoming the first full-time DH to earn the distinction. Judge is the frontrunner for his second AL MVP because he might reach 60 homers again all while being last in Outs Above Average among 25 center fielders with at least 200 attempts and last among center fielders with at least 600 innings in Fangraphs’ defensive metric.
Should offensively historic, but less well-rounded players win the sport’s ultimate individual award over, notably for 2024, shortstops who excel at every facet of both sides of the game while being surrounded by less offensive support than Ohtani and Judge?
In other words, should Bobby Witt Jr. and Francisco Lindor be able to achieve MVP status against players who rise to potentially 60 homers and a 50 (homer)-50 (steals) campaign?
In the modern game, many turn to Wins Above Replacement for guidance because it is viewed as a metric that attempts to encompass all a player does (or does not do) on the field into a singular calculation.
But I have noticed an awful lot of Mets fans citing Fangraphs’ version of WAR to make a case for their guy. And I wonder why that is? Oh wait, on that site Lindor leads the NL in WAR over Ohtani at 7.2 to 6.7 (all data is going into Wednesday). Conversely, at Baseball Reference — the other main purveyor of this metric — Ohtani was at 7.1 and Lindor was at 6.2.
Which leads to a very modern problem. Many voters — and onlookers — treat WAR as if it were handed down divinely from a mountaintop; as if it should end all arguments. Except there is an argument on how to calculate it. Batting average, for example, might have lost its significance over the years, but Ty Cobb and Lindor had it computed the same way.
I doubt a single voter knows all the ingredients and at what emphasis are put into the WAR recipe — Lindor generally knew but could not cite chapter and decimal point.
And so I wonder if this really just comes down to the first word of WAR — Win — to decide who best encompasses the second word of MVP — Valuable. Who helps you win the most? A guy who might go 50-for-50 wearing batting gloves exclusively? Or a player who does not offer as much power or speed, but brings elite defense and durability and — for both Lindor and Witt — leadership all while not having a lineup co-heavyweight the magnitude of Juan Soto or Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman?
As you would expect, Mets personnel have a rather unanimous opinion. So I asked Boston manager Alex Cora what he would take for 162 games — Ohtani’s outrageous, but exclusively offensive output or that of Lindor? Cora, fists in balls bouncing off each other, made the symbol of a hitter in voting for Ohtani because, “It’s 40/40 (actually 44 homers/46 steals) and might be 50/50, and I love Lindor, he’s been great, he is great, but there are other guys having his kind of season. There is no one else [like Ohtani].”
I get it. Again, that is the uncomplicated answer and probably the right one — that in a close race take what you have never seen previously. But I also agree with David Stearns when he said, “It would be tough for me to believe that there’s another player in baseball this year who is more valuable to his team than Francisco Lindor is to us.”
And that is about the fact he already has tied Ernie Banks for reaching 30 homers five times as a shortstop, the second most ever to Alex Rodriguez’s seven. And that during the most vital stretch of the Mets season he carried a 14-game hitting streak and 32-game on-base streak through Tuesday. And that he was third in the NL in doubles, fifth in homers, ninth in steals — and second among all shortstops (to Witt) in Outs Above Average.
But it is more. Front offices and managers have so much daily to worry about. You know something the Mets never worry about? Who is leading off, playing shortstop and is mentally and spiritually ready to play every inning. Remember Betts, not his Dodgers teammate Ohtani, was the NL MVP frontrunner in June before being lost eight weeks with a hand fracture. Arizona’s Ketel Marte was running side-by-side with Lindor trying to chase Ohtani down before playing sporadically and then going on the IL two weeks ago with an ankle sprain.
Lindor has started 139 of 140 Mets games and played the fourth most innings in the majors going into Wednesday at 1,215 ²/₃ innings — or 1,215 ²/₃ more defensive innings than Ohtani. Does Ohtani have enough of an offensive advantage to overcome zero defensive innings — and that part of Lindor’s on-field work is a high baseball IQ lauded by Mets personnel that makes him the quarterback of the defense?
It has all been invaluable for the Mets. Is that enough, though — when competing against unicorn history — to be the most valuable player in the National League?
