The eyes of the college football world will be trained on the state of Alabama this weekend, so it’s fitting that I have a pair of plays coming out of this football hotbed.
Here’s how I’m playing the colossal showdown between the Dawgs and Tide and why I’m taking a service academy seriously.
Georgia at Alabama (7:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN)
Given the Bulldogs’ elite talent, it’s fair to say there is something wrong with their offense.
Since the beginning of last season, Georgia has been slow out of the starting blocks on six occasions.
It failed to score more than 10 first-half points against South Carolina, Auburn and Mizzou during the 2023 regular season and looked equally sluggish against Alabama in the SEC title game.
Those sleepy starts have persisted into 2024, with the Bulldogs scoring just nine first-half points against Clemson and Kentucky combined.
I foresee this trend continuing.
Mike Bobo’s play-calling lacks a killer instinct and Georgia is light on game-breakers on the perimeter.
This is why I’m backing Alabama to take a lead into the locker room at halftime.
If you play a double-result, with Alabama leading at halftime and Georgia coming back to win the game, the payout is currently sitting at +625.
Since taking over in Athens, Kirby Smart has faced Alabama six times.
Double-results that featured a second-half comeback, like the one I’ve built here, have materialized on four of six occasions.
I’m banking on another slow start from quarterback Carson Beck and Georgia, but then expect second-half adjustments from Smart and his staff.
And given how well the defense has played so far (No. 3 in SP+), I foresee this being a one-possession game either way.
An added bonus is that Smart and his staff had an extra week to tinker with the offense, so I’m expecting some new wrinkles and a trick play or two should they fall behind Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Recommendation: Double result — Alabama leads at half, Georgia wins game (+625, FanDuel).
Navy at UAB (Noon, ESPN)
Let’s stay in the Yellowhammer State. Navy is traveling to Birmingham, “The Magic City,” to take on Trent Dilfer and the Blazers.
Last season, this was a runaway for the Midshipmen, who dominated UAB, 31-6. It was the only time the Blazers failed to score 20 or more points all season.
P.J. Volker and his defensive staff know how to defend the short passing game, which made life uncomfortable for Jacob Zeno. I foresee more of the same on Saturday.
But the real reason I’m bullish on the Midshipmen covering as a road underdog is that their offense is humming.
New offensive coordinator Drew Cronic has successfully added Wing-T elements to Navy’s traditional option attack.
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The results have been jaw-dropping. The Midshipmen racked up 566 total yards against Memphis last week, torpedoing the Tigers’ CFP hopes.
Blake Horvath threw for 192 yards in that AAC contest with Memphis, helping him achieve the best QBR in the country. With balance in the run and pass games, Navy now leads the country in chunk plays of 30+ yards from scrimmage (three times per game).
“Navy has great team speed, not good — great,” Dilfer said this week.
That speed is showing up on film, with the Mids’ backs and receivers running wild in the second and third levels of the defense.
The Blazers’ defensive numbers belie their issues.
They have drawn FCS Alcorn State and Louisiana-Monroe in the early going, skewing their stats.
They’re going to find themselves in deep water against a Navy offense that schemes up haymakers on the ground and through the air.
Recommendation: Navy -3.5 (-110, DraftKings).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
