‘Moana 2’ Heads For Record $215M+ Thanksgiving Weekend

SATURDAY AM: Another day, another day of box office records being broken. The richest Black Friday ever at the box office with an estimated $108M had Disney’s Moana 2 also turning in a record Black Friday haul of $54.5M. Disney is now taking their 5-day estimate for Moana 2 to $215M-$220M, which is where rivals saw it all along. However, Disney played wise: Rather than project over their skis, Thanksgiving projections always turn on their axis both on Black Friday and Saturday. 3-day is $140M now, which is the second best debut for Dwayne Johnson after Furious 7‘s $147.1M.

At $215M-$220M, not only is that a Thanksgiving 5-day record for any title, opening or holdover, but it’s also the biggest 5-day opening of all-time, squashing Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6M).

Those assuming that Moana 2 would cut in Wicked‘s business due to the latter’s 2 hour 40 minute runtime, well, you are wrong. So, wrong, wrong, wrong. At $118M over 5-days, the Universal feature take of the Broadway musical is posting the third best 5-day haul for a movie over Thanksgiving, behind Moana 2, and Frozen 2 ($125M). In addition with $32M yesterday, Wicked owns the third best Black Friday box office for any title, behind Moana 2 and Frozen 2 ($34.1M). Popular, indeed.

Paramount’s Gladiator 2 remains on track for a $45M 5-day, for a $112.8M running total by EOD Sunday. Black Friday business shot up 85% from Thanksgiving’s $6.7M with $12.4M on the Denzel Washington, Paul Mescal movie.

By the way, all of this activity spells for a 5-day Thanksgiving marketplace of $422M — by far an all-time record, ahead of 2018’s Thanksgiving stretch which grossed $315.6M.

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FRIDAY UPDATE: Disney’s Moana 2 grossed a massive $28M on Thanksgiving Day, which is the most any movie has ever made on the foodie holiday; the sequel towering over previous champ Frozen 2 ($14.9M).

Moana 2 isn’t soaking up all the water: Universal’s Wicked scored the second-best Thanksgiving Day take ever for a movie at $16.9M. Uni has upped its forecast for the movie to $105.6M over 5-days, which will ultimately be the 4th highest 5-day haul ever for a movie over Thanksgiving after Moana 2, Frozen 2 ($125M) and Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($109.9M). That’s nothing to complain about.

Disney is maintaining their $175M+ forecast over 5-days for the film, even though others see this sequel well past $200M. Today’s business will determine how much to the heavens this Dwyane Johnson-Auli’i Cravalho movie goes. On a 3-day basis, Moana 2 is expected to be Johnson’s second highest opening of all-time, behind Furious 7‘s $147.1M. As we already reported, Johnson is a box office anomaly: He’s the only Hollywood star to open two No. 1 films in the same month, the other being Amazon MGM Studio’s Red One. Two-day take on Moana 2 stands at $85.5M, while global is just under $110M. Among all Thursdays, Moana 2 is the 8th biggest.

Talk about diverse: Moana 2 pulled in 36% Hispanic and Latino, 27% Black, 18% Caucasian and 11% Asian American on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. 4 1/2 stars, 89% positive with a 64% definite recommend, with kids under 12 at 92% and 73% must see right away. Mostly female at 71% with 42% women under 25, 29% women over 25, 16% men over 25, and 13% men under 25. Men and women over 25 gave the movie a 100% score.

Moana 2‘s PLF business which includes some Imax (which Paramount’s Gladiator II owns), is contributing 20% of the business with 3D fueling 14% of the pic’s long weekend. The movie directed by David G. Derrick, Jr, Jason Hand and Dana Ledoux Miller, is playing big everywhere, but noticeably in the South Central and West. AMC Disney Springs reps the sequel’s best gross so far in the nation with $273K.

Paramount’s Gladiator 2 has been pulling in consistent weekdays, yesterday taking in $6.7M, +2% over Wednesday. The 5-day forecast on the Ridley Scott directed movie is now $45M. Running total will be $112.8M after 10-days. The first movie in 2000 ended its stateside run at $187.7M.

Johnson on the live-action side is doing a great job competing with himself as Amazon MGM Studios’ Christmas action title Red One is looking at $21.4M over 5-days after a $3M Thanksgiving day, +8% over Wednesday. That Chris Evans co-star pic will stand at $78.8M by EOD Sunday.

Business for all films eased yesterday due to Thanksgiving by an estimated -36% (or $59M), but it’s all shooting back up today on Black Friday which is expected to hit a $100M+ record for all titles on the shopping day, technically becoming the second-highest grossing day at the domestic B.O. YTD.

1. Moana 2 (Dis) 4200 theaters, Wed $57.5M Thu $28M 3-day $116M 5-day $175M/Wk 1

2.Wicked (Uni) 3,888 theaters, Wed $20.4M Thu $16.9M 3-day $68.2M (-39%), 5-day $105.6M/Total $250.5M/Wk 2

3.Gladiator 2 (Par) 3,580 theaters, Wed $6.6M Thu $6.7M 3-day $31.7M (-42%), 5-day $45M, Total $112.2M/Wk 2

4. Red One (AMZ MGM) 3344 theaters, Wed $2.8M Thu $3M 3-day $15.6M (+18%), 5-day $21.4M, Total $78.8M/Wk 3

5. Best Christmas Pageant Ever (LG) 1,777 theaters, Wed $840K Thu $740K 3-day $4M (+18%) 5-day $5.5M Total $32.6M/Wk 4

6. Bonhoeffer…(Angel) 1,900 theaters, Wed $500K Thu $540K 3-day $2.5M (-50%) 5-day $3.5M Total $9.7M/Wk 2

7. Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 1,716 theaters, Wed $500K Thu $486K 3-day $2.4M (-37%) 5-day $3.3M Total $138M/Wk 6

8. Heretic (A24) 1622 theaters, Wed $278K Thu $292K 3-day $1.3M (-38%) 5-day $1.9M Total $27M/Wk 4

9. The Wild Robot (Uni) 935 theaters Wed $180K Thu $180K 3-day $740K (-65%) 5-day $1.1M Total $142.5M/Wk 10

10.) A Real Pain (SL) 505 theaters Wed $115K Thu $120K 3-day $687K (-37%) 5-day $929K Total $6.2M/Wk 5

Notables:

Queer (A24) 7 theaters, Wed $74K Thu $27K 3-day $145K 5-day $250K/Wk 1
The seven locations of NYC’s AMC Lincoln Square, Angelika, Alamo Brooklyn, and LA’s AMC Grove, AMC Burbank, Vista LA and AMC Century City are putting up a theater average on the three day of $20K.

THANKSGIVING UPDATE: It turns out Moana, singing witches and gladiators can co-exist together and won’t devour each other. All boats rose in the first day of the Thanksgiving stretch as Disney’s opening day of Moana 2, Universal’s Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II led all titles to a $92.2M Wednesday, which was easily the second highest grossing moviegoing day of 2024 after Friday, July 26, when Disney/Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine drove all titles to a $118.3M gross. Read further down, tomorrow, Black Friday, is bound to push yesterday’s harvest to third best daily tally of the year.

Moana 2 came in with $57.5M yesterday, including $13.8M Tuesday previews, which made it the best day ever for a Walt Disney Animation title, and the third best opening for an animated movie after Incredibles 2 ($71.2M) and Inside Out 2 ($63.5M). Disney continues to see a 5-day $175M+ five-day Thanksgiving record, not only for an opening title, but theatrical release during the holiday period. 3-day is at $116M. The swing factor is tomorrow, Black Friday in regards to how massive, or how short Moana 2 goes. No one is expecting her to fall into the ocean — rivals see this Disney animated sequel sailing past $200M+ by Sunday. Moana 2 gets an A- CinemaScore, which is the same as Frozen 2. Disney’s most watched movie on Disney+, the original Moana, got an A.

Wicked saw its highest weekday gross yesterday so far, and the fourth highest day in its run with a fantastic $20.4M. Doesn’t seem like anyone minds the 2 hour and 40 minute running time, and there is a vibrant confidence from sources about the pic’s legs. This puts the Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo movie toward a second weekend of $63.3M (-44%) and a 5-day of $97.1M. Don’t be surprised if it hits $100M. Running total by Sunday makes it the highest grossing movie based on a Broadway show at $242M. How high does this Jon M. Chu directed musical feature go? The highest grossing musicals of all-time at the domestic box office belong to Warner Bros’ Barbie ($636.2M), The Lion King ($543.6M), and Disney’s live-action take of Beauty and the Beast ($504.4M).

Gladiator II ain’t no chump with a $6.6M Wednesday, second weekend of $28M, -49%, and a 5-day of $40M for a running total by Sunday $107.2M.

Also opening in select NYC and LA theaters was Luca Guadagnino’s Daniel Craig movie, Queer, taking in $74K yesterday at seven locations for what’s looking like an estimated $268K 3-day and $390K 5-day. The movie, which is based on William S. Burroughs’ novel is set in 1950s Mexico, and follows an American ex-pat who leads a solitary life amidst a small American community. He falls for a much younger man, and they go on quite the trip. Pic is 78% certified fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes. The Oscar nominated Guadagnino saw his biggest opening at the box office with the Zendaya tennis romantic drama, Challengers, back in the spring with $15M.

As many supp today, moviegoing is expected to be off -44% today to around $51M before soaring to what is expected to be a record $100M+ Black Friday. Not only do people shop, but they go to the movies, too. The best Black Friday was in 2013 according to Comscore when all pics grossed $85M, led by Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.

Wednesday and weekend estimates:

2.Wicked (Uni) 3,888 theaters, Wed $20.4M, 3-day $63.3M (-44%), 5-day $97.1M/Total $242M/Wk 2

3.Gladiator 2 (Par) 3,580 theaters, Wed $6.6M 3-day $28M (-49%), 5-day $40M, Total $107.2M/Wk 2

10.) A Real Pain (SL) 505 theaters Wed $115K 3-day $1.109M (-50%) 5-day $548K (-49%) Total $5.9M/Wk 5

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: The worst thing a studio can do on a massive weekend like this is over-project. And if there’s one thing about Thanksgiving forecasts, they always get over-projected.

Right now, Disney’s Moana 2 is putting up an estimated $54M first day, inclusive of Tuesday’s Walt Disney Animation preview record of $13.8M. This will coast the Dwayne Johnson-Auli’i Cravalho sequel to at least $170M at 4,200 theaters, easily a Thanksgiving 5-day record opening, unseating Disney’s own Frozen ($93.9M), as well as a movie with the biggest haul over the holiday stretch, topping Frozen 2 ($125M). The 3-day for Moana 2 is somewhere around $90M-$100M+.

Let’s just keep a tab on this: The best opening for Johnson at the domestic box office is Furious 7 at $147.1M in 2015.

This is Disney’s fourth blockbuster north of $100M+ domestic under the Alan Bergman team after Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes; Inside Out 2, the highest-grossing movie of the year; and Deadpool & Wolverine, the top-grossing R-rated movie of all time.

RELATED: The Highest-Grossing Animated Films Of All Time At The Box Office: Photo Gallery

Now, some rivals easily see $200M+ over the Wednesday-Sunday period, and if Moana 2 crosses that threshold, the sequel would squash pervious 5-day opening recordholder The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($204.6M) like a turtle. Keep in mind the first day here for Moana 2 bests the first day of that Illumination/Nintendo title at $31.7M — but that pic didn’t have any previews. Black out Moana 2‘s previews, and the surfer girl is at $40.2M currently.

We’re not done yet…

Wicked by Sunday will stand at $236.9M, arguably the best ever stateside for a movie based on a Broadway musical, burying Grease ($190M). The 5-day on Wicked is estimated at $92M. Today is $18.5M, the pic’s highest weekday so far, +11% over Tuesday, which will plow into a $61M second weekend, -46% at 3,888 theaters. The production cost for both parts of Wicked is $320M before P&A.

RELATED: ‘Wicked – Part One’: All The Box Office Records Broken

Paramount’s Gladiator 2 at 3,580 sites is posting another $6.7M today, for a second weekend of $27.3M, -50% and 5-day of $39.4M and a running total of $106.6M for the $250M feature production.

Some are getting their double dose of The Rock this weekend, also heading to Amazon MGM Studios’ Christmas actioner Red One, which is eyeing a $3M Wednesday, $13M third weekend, -1%, $19M 5-day and running total of $76.3M.

RELATED: 10 Most Anticipated Movies In Theaters At The End Of The Year: From ‘Glicked’ Dual Release To ‘A Complete Unknown’

Lionsgate’s fourth weekend of The Best Christmas Pageant Ever at 1,832 locations is seeing $950K today, $3.9M over three days (+14%), 5-day $5.7M and running total of $32.8M.

Remember, the biggest Thanksgiving five-day Wednesday-Sunday frame for all titles belongs to 2018, when Ralph Breaks the Internet opened to No. 1, that period amassing $315.6M per Comscore. It’s looking like we could easily eclipse that benchmark.

RELATED: The Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion At The Box Office: Photo Gallery