Lamar Jackson entered the chat.
After the star quarterback delivered another memorable and eye-catching performance on national television, the NFL MVP race is now tighter than previously thought — and that provides value betting in Week 17.
Josh Allen remains the MVP betting favorite but his odds have dropped to -200 at DraftKings. The Bills' quarterback was around -900 just two weeks ago.
Jackson's three landings on both Christmas and the previous week brought him back into serious consideration, lowering his odds to +145. He leads the league's MVP in QBR and has 39 touchdown passes with just four interceptions, along with 852 yards and four TDs.
Voter fatigue usually holds back a two-time winner of the award, but if the season is great, he can overcome that resistance. After all, Aaron Rodgers made it happen in 2020 and 2021.
That's why I think Buffalo's matchup with the Jets presents a favorable opportunity. Allen has +105 odds to throw at least two passes against a defense sparked recently by Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa.
Allen should thrive, especially since he tends to excel in adverse circumstances. The weather forecast calls for steady rain but fairly warm temperatures.
The MVP story is what makes the prop bet a solid play. I think Allen's chances hinge on this performance, especially since Allen will likely make it past the regular season finale next week. If he underperforms against the Jets, it would likely swing the award to Jackson.
Betting on the NFL?
I think the underlying narrative will impact play calling in the red zone, especially if the Bills have a comfortable lead. He can always run for a score, and those odds are -115 and separate from relegation points. However, I think he will likely be given the green light to find the end zone through the air.
The Bills want to win the game and secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. This is undoubtedly the highest priority. But they also want the cornerstone of their franchise to win the MVP award and will make certain decisions to achieve both. That's why I see +105 odds as a much better value bet than -200 on an MVP ticket.
