The Post's Eric Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 18 of the NFL season.
Sunday
49ers +4.5 over Cardinals
Even without Brock Purdy this week, the 49ers were just 3.5-point underdogs against the Lions at home and are now +4.5 on the road to the Cardinals.
How much do we think Purdy is worth the spread?
San Francisco played a really tough game with one of the best offenses in the league and now faces a terrible Cardinals defense that has allowed five yards per carry since Week 10.
San Francisco is second in yards per play this season (6.3) and fifth in yards per play allowed (5.2).
There's nothing statistically that says the 49ers should be an underdog here as Joshua Dobbs prepares to start the season finale.
Giants +3 over Eagles
Normally, the Giants would be 14-point underdogs or worse for the Eagles. Now, the Giants' “A-Team” will face the 13-3 Eagles' “C-Team,” who still have plenty of talent throughout their roster.
It appears backup QB Kenny Pickett will sit while third baseman Tanner McKee starts in Philadelphia.
Mackey looked excellent in his NFL debut, but Giants players are still trying to win games, for whatever it's worth.
I wouldn't bet on it personally, but I expect the Giants to win a second straight game with Brian Daboll making his case to keep his job.
Packers -10 over Bears
Chicago has the fifth-fewest yards per play in the NFL over the past three weeks (4.7), and has the lowest total number in the NFL this year (4.6).
Neither team has started the play, so we'll get a fully operational Packers offense that has the fifth-best yards per play average.
Chicago's offensive line has reached embarrassing levels — allowing Caleb Williams to be sacked 68 times, the most in the league.
Falcons -8.5 over Panthers
Michael Penix Jr. isn't all that and a bag of chips, but Bijan Robinson certainly is.
He ranks 10th in yards per carry, while the Panthers have allowed an obscene 6.1 yards per carry since Week 11, the worst ever.
Robinson and Tyler Allgaier get plenty of runway as the Panthers struggle to hold the fort.
Buccaneers -14 over Saints
Not only are you playing the Saints, you're also playing most of their backups.
Alvin Kamara will no longer be at running back for the Saints, and Spencer Rattler will return there to start at fullback in place of the injured Derek Carr.
Tampa Bay needs this game, we know it, but the Saints have been terrible in recent weeks.
They were eliminated by the Packers two weeks ago and scored just 10 points against the Raiders.
Cowboys +6.5 above leaders
We're still playing hard, but not playing well. The key players need to be there for both teams, but the captains rely so much on Jayden Daniels and his legs that even in a game like this, I expect them to take it a little easier than usual.
Daniels led Washington in rushing yards in three straight games (all wins) and took some brutal hits.
Broncos -11 over Chiefs
The Chiefs beat the Chargers last year while starting backups and now head into a double bye week with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Right now, the Chiefs are expected to start Carson Wentz, although you should recognize Chris Oladokun's name if you want to bet on Kansas City.
He's the third player and will certainly get some time while the Chiefs sit almost their entire squad.
Colts -5 over Jaguars
Pat McAfee wants this entire team to enter the transfer portal, but not before they blow up the Colts' draft position.
Jacksonville ranks 26th in Defense Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA) this season, with their defense ranking No. 32.
The Colts should win this one easily if they don't completely resign their coach.
Texans +1.5 on Titans
I expect the Giants to go 2-15 against the spread, the worst number in the NFL since at least 2003, the most recent data available.
Houston has played poorly in recent weeks, but the Giants' passing attack has been bad enough (22nd in DVOA) that they should be able to throw enough to get the win.
Houston still has the No. 2 defense, according to DVOA.
This betting line doesn't make any sense unless Vegas has inside information that the Texans don't play this game seriously.
Dolphins -1 on Jets
The Jets can't stop the run, ranking 24th against them, according to DVOA.
Between De'Von Acane and Raheem Mostert, there's no reason why this matchup should be particularly close, considering that even Jets players say some of them are mentally checked out.
This team has no pride
Bills -3 over Patriots
New England curiously declared Drake Maye questionable to start. I think they saw everything they needed this year: a future star.
Meanwhile, Buffalo will play mostly reserves while Josh Allen will replace Mitch Trubisky.
Chargers -4.5 over Raiders
This line indicates that the Chargers will play mostly starters, which is the only case to bet on them here. The Raiders are ranked No. 27 in DVOA, the Chargers No. 9.
If you look at the sidelines, you'll see a huge mismatch between Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce.
Be on high alert for injury reports here, but we have to show it. Several Chargers players, including JK Dobbins, are motivated to succeed this week.
Betting on the NFL?
Assuming the starters play their usual number, we're like the Chargers.
Seahawks -6.5 over RAM
Geno Smith has a $2 million bonus if the Seahawks win 10 games this season, so we know he wants this one.
The Rams are sitting at nearly their entire offense as they prepare for the playoffs, while the Seahawks are falling out of the playoff hunt.
They should be able to win here easily.
Vikings +3 over Black
Everyone will be betting on this as two of the best matchups in the league in a potential preview of the NFC Championship Game.
The Vikings are the healthiest team at this spot with a solid defense.
For stats nerds, the way to beat Sam Darnold is good zone coverage schemes — he has the league's third-best QB rating against man coverage (124.3) and 20th against zone (93.7).
Detroit plays mostly man coverage (and plays it well, with a 54.1 percent completion rate, second-best), but its zone coverage is terrible (74.7 percent completion rate, fifth-worst).
Support the Vikings with confidence on Sunday Night Football.
Last week:4-7.
season: 109-121-3.
