Consider these European and American dualities.
On December 20, 2024, terrorist Talib Al-Abdul Mohsen drove his SUV into a Christmas crowd in Magdeburg, Germany. He killed six bystanders and injured 299 others.
Eleven days later, on New Year's Eve in New Orleans, Louisiana, Shams al-Din Bahar Jabbar crashed his pickup truck into a crowd of people. He killed 15 and injured more than 35.
Germany's fertility rate barely exceeds 1.4 – about average for the shrinking European Union. About 20% of the country's population is now foreign-born, a record high.
American fertility fell sharply to 1.6. The foreign-born now represent 15% of the US resident population, the highest percentage in actual numbers (50 million) and percentages in history.
The German army has become a mere shell of its former self, with fewer than 200,000 soldiers and shortages of almost all types of weapons.
After the humiliation to which the US Army was exposed in Afghanistan, it has now reduced the number of recruits to more than 40,000 soldiers. It faces a shortage of anti-tank weapons, artillery shells, ships and logistical support.
Germany may finally be able to spend 2% of its GDP on defense; The United States is on track to fall below 3%, the lowest level in more than 80 years since the Great Depression.
Last year, the German economy contracted; This year, it will barely grow, partly due to a lack of affordable fossil fuels.
Germans pay four times what Americans pay on average for electricity. However, the Trump administration has promised an oil and natural gas renaissance, hoping to expand production and exports through new pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals.
In short, the United States is beginning to imitate the ills plaguing Europe—yet, in the next four years, renewal could help slow the decline of both.
Both face shrinking and aging populations.
Both of them either cannot or do not want to control their borders, despite popular protests.
Both are experiencing a political awakening and are declining.
The people of both countries want a smaller government – more freedom of expression and less vigilance. They insist on less, only legal immigration and secure borders.
They vote for cheaper energy and fewer regulations.
Europeans and Americans alike want more meritocracy and less emphasis on race and gender.
In the postmodern chaos of the twenty-first century, Europe and the United States are still likely to share the same enemies and friends.
They both resent China's unequal approach to global trade, based on mercantilism that will never allow Europe and the United States to treat China as it treats each other.
Europeans and Americans are concerned about the significant expansion witnessed by China's conventional and nuclear military establishment.
Neither of them wants Iran to develop missiles equipped with nuclear warheads with a range that would reach the capitals of the two countries. They do not want Russian President Vladimir Putin to redraw the borders of the former Soviet Union.
Europe, as a rule, likes democrats as quasi-socialist relatives.
But many Europeans secretly assume that their security and prosperity are better when conservatives rule America.
In the past, Europe has not been a fan of Donald Trump, either as president or as a pre- and post-presidential candidate.
They fear that he is isolationist, not diplomatic enough, not fully supportive of NATO, or too happy to impose tariffs for their tastes – and they fear his peddling approach to the art of deal-making will provoke wake-up calls.
But 2025 is certainly not 2017 or even 2020. There is an urgent need to “reset” thinking on both sides now more than ever.
The Biden administration has not been a model partner for Europe.
This has led to the cancellation of a joint pipeline between Cyprus, Greece and Israel, in the eastern Mediterranean, to bring much-needed natural gas to Europe.
You talked a great game about strengthening NATO. But the bulwark of the coalition, the US Army, witnessed a real reduction in its budget, the politicization of the Pentagon, and a decrease in the number of recruits by more than 40,000 recruits.
The humiliating escalation in 2021 from Afghanistan has not only eroded US credibility but also undermined Western deterrence.
Biden has opposed building new LNG export terminals in the United States designed to help energy-starved Europe find a reliable, honest supplier and break away from Russia.
In return, Trump promises to “drill, drill, drill,” in part to secure needed income by exporting massive amounts of liquefied natural gas to fuel-starved Europe.
Europe was angry that Trump once jokingly bullied them into fulfilling promises to increase their defense spending. But after invading Ukraine, they are glad that some countries did it.
It is likely that the Europeans want – and need – Trump to restore a more deterrent American army, not a vigilant army.
Europe and America are experiencing a crisis and need radical new thinking.
Perhaps Europe will soon quietly rejoice at the departure of Biden, the return of Trump, and the fact that they have a strong, loyal, and vocal friend instead of their humble aide.
Victor Davis Hanson is a distinguished fellow at the Center for American Greatness.
