Egg prices are already high, and may get worse.
The average price of a dozen large, first-class eggs was $4.15 during December, up from $2.51 in December 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Two things are driving prices up: the bird flu outbreak and state laws regarding cage-free eggs.
Patrick Benfield, a professor and supply chain expert at Syracuse University's College of Management, told Nexstar Media that egg prices could rise as much as 20% before the year is out.
This means that the average price of a dozen large eggs could reach nearly $5 by the end of 2025, the highest average price ever recorded for a dozen eggs.
The previous high price for eggs was in January 2023, when the average price for a dozen large eggs was $4.82. But by August 2023, the average price had dropped to $2.04.
Benfield predicted that egg prices could exceed this record in February.
The current outbreak of avian influenza, technically known as “highly pathogenic avian influenza” (HPAI), has led to a record number of deaths among laying hens, the USDA said in a recent report.
In the last quarter of 2024, more than 20 million egg-laying hens died.
“Unlike previous years, in 2024, all major production systems experienced significant losses, including conventionally caged, cage-free, and certified organic species,” the USDA said.
Once bird flu is detected, the farm must cull all birds in the flock. This has had a devastating impact on the egg industry, as it takes about five months for chickens to mature.
“When a hen is five months old, she can lay about one egg a day,” Benfield said.
He added that there are currently no vaccines or medical treatments against bird flu.
The only defense is “biosecurity practices” – keeping chickens safe from wild birds and away from humans, covering coops, and “minimizing large ponds and standing water.”
Benfield hopes that chickens will develop “some kind of natural immunity” to the outbreak, but he warned Nexstar that this could take years.
“We haven't seen that yet and it will take many years for that to happen,” Benfield told Nexstar. “Also, if that happens, we don't know if this immunity would protect the chickens if the avian influenza virus mutates.”
Aside from bird flu, many states have laws requiring all eggs sold to be “cage-free,” meaning the birds are not raised in cages. These eggs are usually more expensive than conventional eggs even in the absence of a bird flu outbreak.
While egg expert Lisa Steele told Fox News Digital that pasture-raised chickens produce the “gold standard” of eggs, these birds are at increased risk of disease.
“Poultry are infected with HPAI from infected waterfowl (ducks and geese) and gulls, which may frequently be found in wetlands on farms. Therefore, poultry that are raised outdoors or have access to the outdoors are at greater risk of contracting HPAI virus.” High altitude birds (HPAI).
“Infected poultry can spread the disease to new flocks through contact with birds, people, manure and equipment. HPAI viruses can be present in bird droppings for months, especially under conditions of high humidity and low temperatures,” the University of Minnesota said.