As residents affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires were slowly returning to their homes — or where their homes were — another dangerous wind event was expected to begin in Santa Ana on Monday and was expected to bring isolated gusts of up to 100 mph.
Firefighters continued to take advantage of the weather pause thanks to low cloud cover and good humidity levels. The Palisades Fire has increased to 52% containment while the Eaton Fire has increased to 81% containment. But the National Weather Service warned that winds expected this week mean “conditions are ripe for extreme fire behavior and rapid fire growth, which could threaten lives and property.”
The familiar red flag warning for Los Angeles County was issued from 8 a.m. Monday morning until 2 p.m. Tuesday. According to the NWS, “A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will occur soon. Use extreme caution with anything that could spark a wildfire. Residents near wildland interfaces should be prepared to evacuate if a wildfire occurs.” wildfire.
Forecasters took the rare step of issuing a “Particularly Hazardous Situation Warning,” an extreme designation beyond a red flag warning, for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties Sunday afternoon due to damaging Santa Ana winds and extremely low humidity. This area is outlined in purple at the bottom and skirts along the edges of both existing fires.
California Governor Gavin Newsom last week sought the star rating last week, noting that such warnings had been issued four times in the past three months. The first preceded the Mountain Fire in Ventura in which 243 structures were destroyed. The second fire preceded the Franklin Fire in Malibu last December, which destroyed 20 buildings. The third was preceded by the Palisades and Eaton fires, which destroyed nearly 15,000 homes and counting. The fourth round was the second round of winds last week that fanned those fires.
A Particularly Hazardous Situation Warning is in effect from noon Monday until 10 a.m. Tuesday for the Santa Clarita Valley and San Fernando Valley including Calabasas, Agoura Hills, Malibu Coast, Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreation Area, Interstate 5 corridor, San Gabriel Valley and the North. From Interstate 210 including Altadena and Glendora.
Here is part of the NWS forecast discussion:
Northeast winds will start over the mountains a few hours before dawn. During the morning hours after sunrise, the winds will accelerate and move from the mountains to the highlands and then the coast. Winds will begin to increase and will reach warning levels during the day. Maximum winds across csts/vlys will be between 55 and 65 mph and MTNS will see frequent gusts of 60 to 70 mph with local winds on the ridge reaching 70 to 90 mph. These winds will be directed in a typical northeastern Santa Ana direction. This trend will bring the greatest MTN wave potential to the San Fernando and Santa Clarita Vlys.
Winds will peak Monday evening and overnight and will extend into Tuesday morning before upper support diminishes and the SFC graduates begin to relax.
Expected wind speed on Monday evening:
Forecasters say isolated wind gusts of 80 to 100 mph are expected in most wind-prone mountainous locations, such as the San Gabriel Mountains, western Santa Monica and Santa Susana Mountains.
This won't be the end of the matter.
Per NWS:
Widespread gusty offshore winds and very low humidity will continue later Tuesday night into Thursday in most of these same areas. The strongest winds during this period are expected to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning with gusts ranging from 40 to 55 mph. Minimum humidity is expected to range between 3 to 13 percent overall, with a very weak recovery overnight. Because red flag fire conditions are likely to persist, a fire weather watch is also in effect in most of these areas from late Tuesday evening through Thursday evening.
Officials are urging residents to review their evacuation plans and make sure emergency kits are stocked with the necessary items in case they have to evacuate.
The City of Los Angeles announced that red flag parking restrictions will go into effect at 8 a.m. Monday and will remain in effect until further notice.
Ironically, the National Weather Service's latest forecast also assumes “a 60 to 70 percent chance of rain next weekend, with about 40 percent of sets showing rain accumulations of more than a half-inch in most of the coast and valleys.”
That could present another challenge to recovery efforts, as well as the potential for mudslides in recent burn scars and, as Los Angeles Department of Public Works Chief Mark Pestrella warned earlier this week, potentially toxic flows.
“Both areas have suffered watershed damage that has burned to such an extent that we expect massive debris flows when it rains,” he warned. “In the event of heavy rain, we expect all street areas and all communities to be affected by debris flows that may pose a risk to human health. In order to address this issue, we are developing plans to capture and trap this debris as much as possible during rainfall.”
Pestrella said his department is “evaluating the impact on the flood control system” in the Palisades and Altadena areas. He reported that his administration is “already deploying manpower to the area in order to make sure that our flood control system is as prepared – and our street system is prepared – as possible for this rain event.”
City News Service contributed to this report.
