With less than five months until the introductory elections on June 24, the New York City mayor's race is formed as a referendum on one thing above all: recognition of the name.
Either you have, or not.
According to a new survey of the Manhattan Institute, only two competitors really declare: former state governor Andrew Como, who has not officially entered the race, and the mayor Eric Adams.
This may seem like good news for them – but in the case of Adams, it's not so. The mayor is known, but he does not like.
71 % amazing voters see it inadvertently. Only 25 % see positively.
Como is still extreme, but competition: 46 % see positively, 49 % is not favorable.
Meanwhile, New York residents are not satisfied with local circumstances-with two-thirds of the voters, 66 %, believing that the city is heading in the wrong direction.
In our analysis, the most likely scenario is a match in the old school between Adams and Komo, two politicians who flourish in the treatment policy, not the left's purity tests.
But even if Adams stumbled in the elementary stage, this may not be the last time the two faced.
Yes, though both of them Among them are democrats.
We explored 618 registered voters in New York City, likely to reflect potential voters for 2025 on gender, age, race and other factors, and then studied the potential result in primary in June with the repetition round.
Representative Bronx Richie Torres, although he is seen as the best job in Albani, is the most interesting wild card in the race. His uncompromising attacks on the statements in the state – and the failure of job occupants in crime and housing – has sparked his personal file. It is known by 57 % of voters and has a strong tuber between both Democrats (+26 %) and Republicans (+28 %).
He should be a figure like Torres, in theory, the future of a competitive democratic party. At the present time, its presence sheds light on the weakness of the city's progressive seat.
Despite their cultural influence, progressive candidates are struggling to leave the impression.
Financial observer Brad Lander and other left -wing hope remains unknown to large areas of voters. None of them achieved more than 16 % support for democratic democracy.
Our survey suggests that if Cuomo is working, it wins. The first round of democratic primaries leads 30 %, 14 % before Adams.
In our simulation primary, dark progressive progressive in early rounds is eliminated, followed by former financial observer Scott Stringer and then Lander.
Come to the final round, Como outperforms Adams 53 % to 47 %. If this is followed, this will be the first time that a democratic mayor has lost the seat of the preliminary elections since David Denkins canceled Ed Koch in 1989.
But Adams may have an opening for escaping: If his position between Democrats continues in the hole, he can – unusually – can run as a Republican.
Under the Wilson Bacola law in New York State, the city's five -year -old boycott committees can give the mayor permission to appear in the Republican poll.
This may seem far from the feeling, but if President Trump blesses the idea, the boycott heads may play the ball.
Adams can put himself as a “law and order” candidate against Komo, in general elections where crime cases and the ability to bear costs dominate.
For Trump, Adams's support for interference in his hometown policy-will be a way to test his brand in a deep blue area while driving a wedge between Democrats.
The frequency of the crime -focused messages for Adams already in the 2024 playing and playing book, and their joint opposition to progressive immigration policies can help moderate in the Adams court.
While some of the Republican Party intermediaries may be linked to a long -term democratic embrace, the President's inner circle indicated openness to an alliance with Adams, who attended multiple events alongside Trump's main alternative.
If Adams is playing his card properly, he can convert Trump's gesture into a political lifeline – whether as a Republican candidate or as an independent with the support of the Republican Party.
Will this strategy work? Maybe not. The former Cuomo-Edams match, which shows a 50 % poll to 27 % in the virtual general elections.
But Adams will have something that a Republican candidate had not had for decades: a real base.
More than 30 % of the New York population supported Trump last November. If Adams unifies this support and gets rid of some independents, the city can see the first elections from the competitive public mayor in modern memory.
One group loses whatever: the progressive left.
Whether the city ends with Cuomo or Adams, its next mayor will refuse to spoil the police, free transit and other socialist experiences-a reminder that, despite its continuous impact on the battles within the party, the leftist left-wing side will not have the left side in Gracie Mansion.
Currently, the battle lines are drawn: the old school machine policy in Como in exchange for the besieged Adams work.
It seems that the New York residents, when they face the choice between the unknown and the bad, are ready to go with the demons they know.
John Kitham, a legal policy fellow at the Manhattan Institute, where Jesse ARM is the Executive Director of Foreign Affairs and Chief of Staff.
