‘Novocaine’ Leading Lowest Weekend Of 2025

UPDATED, Saturday AM: Thank God for Snow White next weekend, right?

Who knew with that movie’s controversy we’d be saying that!? However, the industry should be thankful: If Snow White pulls off a $50 million-plus opening, that’s a respectable bump for what is a barren desert of a business right now. Current estimates show that this weekend is in fact the lowest grossing at the domestic box office year-to-date with around $52M for all films, lower than Super Bowl Weekend. How is that possible during a spring break with kids off?

In fact, Snow White could have moved up to this weekend. Instead, we have a weekend of what appears to be counterprogramming with five wide entries. And no matter what their exits are here, it’s hard to get people to go to the movies (even if it’s a novel movie) when there isn’t momentum to go. As such, the B Cinemascore, 84% positive, 58% definite recommend Paramount movie Novocaine is leading with an $8.5M opening after $3.9M Friday/previews. By technicality, and finding a good date on the calendar, it gives both Paramount and Jack Quaid (in arguably his first studio leading-man role) a No. 1 debut.

But, let’s come back to that point: Five new movies are on the marquee. There isn’t a pandemic or a winter storm to blame for the lack of traffic this weekend. Exhibition screams at studios for more product because they need it. But clearly, it’s a matter of quality over quantity. Better to have one big tentpole that a studio spent on then a handful of films they didn’t.

I’m told by Paramount and Focus Features — the latter which has the high-gloss Steven Soderbergh movie Black Bag, which is performing to the bottom of its expectations of $7M in third place — that they committed marketing spend to the $50M production. All I have to say is that everyone knows their own numbers, and knows whether they’re slashing costs so that they’re not throwing good money after bad. But if theatrical is being used just as an advertising vehicle to get to the home window, well, shame on you. These bad habits will kill the business. Straighten up and fly right.

Still, it’s not to say that Paramount wasn’t passionate about Novocaine. Production bosses Mike Ireland and Daria Cercek saw the movie as a low-risk opportunity to diversify their slate with plenty of upside. The project was acquired at budget for $18M before P&A. Paramount heavily screened the movie. Maybe the definite recommend tips business higher tonight. Men bought tickets at 58%, with 26% of the audience between 18 and 24 years old, 28% between 25-34 and 42% 35+ years old. Diversity demos are 46% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 11% Black, 10% Asian and 4% other. PLFs are accounting for 32% of weekend ticket sales. West is the best: top venue is AMC Burbank with around $21K.

Aside from Conclave being a comp ($6.6M opening), realize that years ago adult-skewing spy thrillers such as 2005’s ultimate Oscar winner The Constant Gardner also put up similar high-single-digit openings, that pic doing a 3-day of $8.5M over a Labor Day impacted by Hurricane Katrina (though that Ralph Fiennes-Rachel Weisz movie cost $20M at the time, not $50M). The Constant Gardner finaled at $33.5M; Conclave is also around that threshold. That’s the final hope here for Black Bag. We’ll see. There’s a lot of British spy stuff on streaming including Slow Horses and Black Doves to keep penny-pinching adults at home.

Black Bag is seeing a B CinemaScore, 75% positive Posttrak, but a solid 51% definite recommend bringing in 56% men, 29% between 25-34 years old and 59% 35+. Diversity demos are 58% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian and 5% other. It’s an East and West coast movie, with AMC Lincoln Square the pic’s richest location with close to $32K so far.

Warner Bros.’ Mickey 17 is second. Industry estimates have it at $7.6M, off 60%, with a running total by Sunday of $33.3M. The global take for the $118.8M Bong Joon Ho movie is up to $74.8M. That’s not good.

Ketchup Entertainment’s rescue of Warner Bros.’ Looney Tunes: The Day the Earth Blew Up had a $1M Friday for a projected $3.1M opening off a B+ CinemaScore and 89% on PostTrak with a 72% definite recommend. Don’t make the assumption that this is where the shelved Coyote vs. Acme would wind up gross-wise. This is an indie studio releasing a major studio film, hence marketing costs are significantly lower than what a Warner Bros could pump out. This title was originally greenlit for Max, but with the Warner Bros Discovery restructuring was sent to the American Film Market instead to be sold on the market. The Daffy Duck and Porky Pig pic had its world premiere at Annecy International Animation Film Festival last summer. Looney Tunes was 64% dude leaning, 43% of the audience between 25-34 and 26% between 18-24, with 22% parents, 17% kids and 61% general audiences. Diversity demos are 47% Caucasian, 28% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black, 11% Asian American and 5% other. Any U.S. coins for this movie can be found in the South Central, Midwest and West. AMC Burbank is leading the way with $5,500.

Pinnacle Peak Pictures’ The Last Supper owns the only A- CinemaScore for the weekend, but the movie is coming in with only $2.8M. Areas of play for the New Testament story is the South, South Central and Midwest, with the Santikos Casa Blanca in San Antonio TX the highest grossing location for the title so far with just under $5,000.

And A24’s Opus is a dud, unfortunately, falling outside the top 10 with a $1M opening and a C+ CinemaScore, 64% positive and 44% definite recommend on PostTrak after a $433K Friday. I thought this movie, which is like a comedic version of Midsommar in its final girl contending with a cult plot, was a lot of fun with John Malkovich and Ayo Edebiri. But the movie in its Sundance premiere received a muted reception next to Love Lies Bleeding, which played like a rock concert (still, that movie only had a wide opening of $2.5M at 1,362 theaters, and a final of $8.3M domestic).

It’s obvious not even the A24 devotees are rushing into theaters to see this. The film cost under $10M before P&A. I don’t know how the economics on this work, and how home entertainment deems it a break-even or in the black profit-wise; let’s just say that A24 has been here before, and it’s becoming something of a motif (read, Love Lies Bleeding and the Rachel Zegler horror comedy Y2K, which opened to $2.1M and stopped at $4.4M). Let’s also not forget the Nicolas Cage-starring Dream Scenario, which only made $5.7M). C’mon A24, you’re the last stand for hipster moviegoing among the 18-34 set. Let’s not mess it up.

Women mostly came out for Opus at 54%, with 28% of the audience between 18-24 and 50% between 25-34. Diversity demos were 43% Caucasian, 30% Black, 19% Latino, 5% Asian and 3% other. Light business in the East, Midwest and West. AMC Grove has the best grosses so far this weekend with just under $6,000.

Here’s the chart:

1.) Novocaine (Par) 3,365 theaters, Fri $3.9M, 3-day $8.5M/Wk 1

2.) Mickey 17 (WB) 3,807 theaters, Fri $2.1M 3-day $7.6M (-60%), Total $33.3M/Wk 2

3.) Black Bag (Foc) 2,705 theaters, Fri $2.7M, 3-day $7M/Wk 1

4.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 3,250 (-230) theaters, Fri $1.5M (-31%) 3-day $5.2M (-38%), Total $185.1M/Wk 5

5.) Looney Tunes…(Ketchup) 2,827 Fri $1M, 3-day $3.1M/Wk 1

6.) The Last Supper (Pinnacle) 1,575 theaters, Fri $1M, 3-day $2.8M/Wk 1

7.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 2,489 (-596) theaters, Fri $725K 3-day $2.75M (-26%), Total $41.2M/Wk 5

8.) The Monkey (NEON) 2,294 (-661) theaters, Fri $700K (-37%) 3-day $2.5M (-36%), Total $35.2M/Wk 4

9.) Dog Man (Uni) 2,407 (-346) theaters, Fri $650K (-13%) 3-day $2.35M (-31%), Total $92.6M/Wk 7

10.) Last Breath (Foc) 2,661 (-429) theaters, Fri $650K (-44%), 3-day $2.15M, Total $18.4M/Wk 3

Notables
Opus (A24) 1,764 theaters, Fri $433K, 3-day $1M/Wk 1

PREVIOUSLY, Friday afternoon: Wait, wasn’t the impact from the strikes last year?

If 2025 is going to be known for anything, it’s which weekend is the lowest at the box office. With Paramount’s new wide entry Novocaine and Warner Bros’ holdover Mickey 17 doing about $8M each (many believe the Jack Quaid movie has the edge), this weekend could go down as indeed the lowest, bottoming under the Super Bowl weekend February 7-9 frame with $55.8M, per Comscore.

So far there have been three weekends in 2025 where all movies grossed under $57M. And get this: We’re already in spring break! Comscore says a third of all colleges are on break today with 24% K-12 schools off, those numbers holding firm to Monday. This is just awful for the entire industry.

The ray of sunshine is that Novocaine‘s exits are solid. The movie did well in the late-night showtimes, so hopefully there’s some spring later tonight. It’s booked at 3,365 locations. The 10-day right now on Mickey 17 is $33.7M; the pic’s second frame is -57% at 3,807 sites.

Third place goes to Focus Features’ Steven Soderbergh pic Black Bag, which is seeing a $2.5M Friday and 3-day of $6M at 2,705 theaters. It’s a word-of-mouth movie, I’m told. Conclave, by comparison, opened to $6.6M in 1,753 theater and played to a near 5x multiple. That’s hope here for the Michael Fassbender-Cate Blanchett spy pic.

The rest, may they not rest in peace, are as follows:

4.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 3,250 theaters, Fri $1.5M, 3-day $5.3M (-37%), Total $185.2M/Wk 5

5.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 2,489 theaters, $800K, 3-day $2.9M (-22%), Total $41.4M/Wk 5

6.) The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie (Ketchup) 2,827 theaters, Fri $750K, 3-day $2.15M/Wk 1

7.) The Last Supper (Pinnacle Peak Pictures) 1,575 theaters, Fri $725K, 3-day $2M/Wk 1
What’s Last Supper? Here’s the trailer:

8.) Opus (A24) 1,764 theaters, $600K, 3-day $1.5M/Wk 1
The John Malkovich-Ayo Edebiri movie grossed $150K in previews Thursday night.

PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Paramount’s Novocaine made $1.75 million in previews — a total that includes Thursday night and advance screenings from last weekend.

The R-rated action comedy might lead the box office this weekend with anywhere from $8M-$12M, potentially unseating Warner Bros’ $118M Bong Joon Ho sci-fi movie Mickey 17, which is expected to fall 55%-60% with $9M-$10M. PostTrak audiences gave Novocaine 4½ stars and a 59% definite recommend last night — exits any studio has to take seriously. The 18-34 crowd showed up at 79%.

Novocaine was a negative pickup that cost Paramount around $18M, which is the cost of the movie.

Mickey 17 ends the week with $25.8M, with $1.2M day, off 17% from Thursday. The biggest weekday for the Robert Pattinson movie was Tuesday with $2.5M. Mickey 17 will have PLFs and Imax this weekend.

Novocaine, which stars The Boys’ Jack Quaid, Amber Midthunder and Veep‘s Matt Walsh, follows a guy incapable of feeling physical pain who turns his rare condition into an unexpected advantage in the fight to rescue the girl of his dreams when she is kidnapped.

There’s another Steven Soderbergh movie on the marquee, and that’s Focus Features’ $50M spy movie Black Bag with Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender, which collected $850,000 from Thursday previews and early-access screenings at 2,250 locations. Critics love it at 97% certified fresh, and the RT audience score is at 79%. However, the movie is expected to do in the high-single-digits as it’s aimed at older adults; the over-35 set repped 52% of the audience last night in PostTrak exits. Written by David Koepp, Black Bag follows intelligence agents George Woodhouse and his beloved wife Kathryn. When she is suspected of betraying the nation, George faces the ultimate test: loyalty to his marriage or his country.

Black Bag‘s previews are less than the $1M racked up by Focus Features’ most recent adult thriller, Last Breath, which went on to open to $7.8M over the February 28-March 2 weekend.

Falling Forward Films and Ketchup Entertainment have the Warner Bros Animation movie they rescued — not Coyote vs. Acme but Looney Tunes: The Day the Earth Blew Up. It’s booked at 2,827 theaters and expected to do in the single digits. Thursday night previews made $250K.

A24 has its Midsommar-like horror comedy Opus booked at 1,700 theaters. Starring John Malkovich, Ayo Edebiri and Juliette Lewis , it’s expected to do in the low single digits. The feature directorial debut of former GQ editor Mark Anthony Green follows a young journalist (Edebiri), who is invited along with her boss to the desert compound of a reclusive aging rock star legend (Malkovich), who lives with this cult. Chaos ensues. Critics didn’t like it at 39% Rotten, but I did. Opus cost less than $10M in net production cost before P&A.

Says tracking service Quorum about this weekend of many wide entries, some of which might not crack $10M: “You have to give Paramount credit for supporting Novocaine with a spot during the Super Bowl, among other things. Sadly, tracking has been muted, with neither awareness nor interest reaching 40%. Black Bag has reached 40% interest; however, far fewer people know it exists. Awareness is only at 27%. Also, opening this weekend is Opus, which stalled at 16% awareness. It’s hard to generate a big opening when few people know the film exists.”